Jan 16, 2016
9:57 PM
9:54 PM
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Mohamed El-Erian, Pimco's former chief executive officer and a Bloomberg View columnist, comments on oil prices and Fed policy.
Forex Trading | News Daily Update | Analysis Department.
- 9:36 PM
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The Australian
The AUD/USD on Friday weakened markedly against the background of a possible deterioration in the Chinese economy.
The Australian dollar on Friday has no luck. The AUD/USD is falling since the beginning of the Asian session, the current price in the instrument is 0.6876. Such a strong intraday fall in the pair has not been seen for nearly a month, since 17 December.
Investors pay attention to the facts of differences in valuations of the RMB outside the mainland and on the domestic market. The growth of offshore indicators may indicate the willingness of investors toward a new intervention by the NSC. The market is nervous, and it affects the currencies of neighboring countries.
Actually Australian statistics look good. According to the released data, the volume of mortgage lending in the country in November rose by 1.8% m/m. The components of the report show the rise in approved applications for housing loans. With everything else, the number of permits for new homes in Australia rose in November to 2.7%.
Mortgage lending on the background of the low RBA rate and probability of its further reduction, is really in demand. The real estate sector is able to give the economy some good support, taking into account the risks from China - Australia will find it very useful in the near future.
Forex Trading | News Daily Update | Analysis Department.
- 9:34 PM
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(GBP/USD, GOLD)Analysis for January 15th, 2016 GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”
GBP USD, Time Frame Daily. Indicator signals: Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen are still influenced by “Dead Cross” (1); Kijun-Sen and Senkou Span A are directed downwards. Ichimoku Cloud is heading down (2) and widening; Chinkou Lagging Span is below the chart. Short-term forecast: we can expect resistance from Tenkan-Sen, and decline of the price.
GBP USD, Time Frame H4. Indicator signals: Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen intersected below Kumo Cloud and formed “Dead Cross” (1) again. Ichimoku Cloud is going down (2); Chinkou Lagging Span is below the chart. Short-term forecast: we can expect resistance from Tenkan-Sen, and decline of the price.
XAU USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”
XAU USD, Time Frame Daily. Indicator signals: Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen are influenced by “Dead Cross” (1). Chinkou Lagging Span is below the chart, Ichimoku Cloud is closed (2), and the price is on Tenkan-Sen. Short‑term forecast: we can expect resistance from the cloud’s lower border and support from D Senkou Span A.- 9:29 PM
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(EUR/USD, USD/JPY)Analysis for January 15th, 2016 EUR USD, “Euro vs. US Dollar”
At the H4 chart of EUR USD, bullish Tweezers and Hammer patterns indicated an ascending movement. Three Line Break chart and Heiken Ashi candlesticks confirm a bullish direction.
The H1 chart of EUR USD shows a sideways correction. Three Line Break chart indicates a bearish direction; Heiken Ashi candlesticks confirm an ascending movement.
USD JPY, “US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen”
At the H4 chart of USD JPY, the sideways correction within the downtrend continues below the downside Window. Three Line Break chart shows the correction; bearish Doji pattern and Heiken Ashi candlesticks confirm a descending movement.- 9:23 PM
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(EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/RUB, GOLD)Analysis for January 15th, 2016 EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”
Eurodollar is forming another descending structure with the target at 1.0800. We think, today the price may reach it and then form a consolidation channel. If the channel is broken downwards, the downtrend may continue up to 1.0682; this would be only the first half of this wave. An alternative scenario implies that the pair may continue consolidating at the current levels and grow towards 1.0915. Later, in our opinion, the market may continue falling inside the downtrend.
GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”
Pound has completed its descending flag pattern and defined the border of the consolidation channel. We think, today the price may continue growing towards 1.4476 (at least). After the pair forms a continuation pattern and breaks this level, it may start a correction towards 1.5115. An alternative scenario implies that the market may reach new lows and form a new consolidation channel.
USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”
Franc has reached the minimum target of its correction. We think, today the price may test 0.9995 from above and then grow towards 1.0100. After breaking it, the market may continue growing towards 1.0190.
USD JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”
Yen is still consolidating in the center of the channel. In fact, we can see flag correctional pattern. Possibly, the price may test 118.50 from below and then continue falling inside the downtrend. The next target is at 115.55; the main one is at 115.00.
AUD USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”
Australian Dollar has returned inside its consolidation range, rebounded from the center, and right now is falling towards the channel’s lower border. The main scenario suggests that the price may continue falling inside the downtrend to reach 0.6660. An alternative scenario implies that the price may continue consolidating and grow towards the upper border at 0.7070.- 9:13 PM
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Davide Serra, chief executive officer and founder at Algebris Investments, and Steven Major, global head of fixed income research at HSBC, talk about European banks under tougher regulatory requirements.
Forex Trading | News Daily Update | Analysis Department.
- 9:08 PM
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The Euro
On Thursday, the main currency pair is reacting to the flow of statistics, but investors are hesitant.
The euro is moderately growing, and the current price is the main currency pair is 1.0895. The US has already managed to release some pretty interesting statistics.
A weekly report on the number of claims for unemployment benefits showed an increase to 284 thousand against the forecast of 275 thousand. It is possible that there are serious post-Christmas and seasonal adjustments.
The second interesting release is regarding the indicators of US imports. Statistics showed that the import prices in December fell by 1.2% m/m (-8.2% y/y) compared with an expected drop of 1.4% m/m. The index weakened for the sixth month in a row monthly and seventeenth - annualized.
The main lever of pressure on import prices is commodity fluctuations. Due to the severe market volatility in the oil sector and the rapid drop in prices for oil, all related raw goods and products are falling. Additional burden on imported goods come from a strong US dollar.
For several days, a lot of activity in the euro/dollar rate is observed during the Asian and US sessions, while in the afternoon, in the European session, the pair is quite calm. This indicates the polarity of the risks carried by traders: in China they are desperately struggling with the slowing of their economy, and in the US they trying to maintain confidence in their system.
Forex Trading | News Daily Update | Analysis Department.
- 9:06 PM
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The Pound
The GBP/USD pair remains near many week lows, and the Bank of England protocol did not support the pound.
On Thursday, the British Pound remains under pressure. The GBP/USD pair managed to update a new low at 1.4361, but is trading slightly higher. However, while the turbulence in the currency market remains serious, there is a possibility of the pound updating its lows again.
Today the minutes of the previous meeting of the Bank of England were published. The document points to a number of risks for the British economy: for example, the lower-than-expected levels of labor productivity in the country. Moreover, wage growth has slowed down, and it has lowered inflationary pressures. Parameters of crediting are still going up, but even here the impulse does not look the strongest. Low rates were to accelerate the demand for credit products, but the British prefer not to take risks.
According to the BoE, in the fourth quarter of 2015 and the beginning of 2016 the local GDP increased by about 0.5%, although a more pronounced growth was expected. There are problems on the part of commodity prices, which are feeling the pressure because of the actions of OPEC, and the United States.
It is interesting that in the protocol of the Bank of England it is not excluded that a certain influence on the behavior of the sterling could have had the talk about the intention of Great Britain to raise the question of EU membership. It is rare, in fact, when the conservative Bank of England includes political commentary into the purely financial fabric.
The pound remains in a weak position, obviously, because the pressure from all sides is too big. At the same time, the UK economy actually looks quite stable.
Forex Trading | News Daily Update | Analysis Department.
- 9:03 PM
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(GBP/USD, GOLD)Analysis for January 14th, 2016 GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”
GBP USD, Time Frame Daily. Indicator signals: Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen are still influenced by “Dead Cross” (1); Tenkan-Sen is directed downwards. Ichimoku Cloud is heading down (2), Chinkou Lagging Span is below the chart. Short-term forecast: we can expect decline of the price and the correction up to the cloud’s lower border.
GBP USD, Time Frame H4. Indicator signals: Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen are influenced by “Dead Cross” (1); all lines are directed downwards. Ichimoku Cloud is going down and almost closed (2); Chinkou Lagging Span is below the chart. Short-term forecast: we can expect resistance from Tenkan-Sen, and decline of the price.
XAU USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”
XAU USD, Time Frame Daily. Indicator signals: Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen intersected above Kumo Cloud and formed “Dead Cross” (1). Chinkou Lagging Span is below the chart, Ichimoku Cloud is still moving upwards (2), and the price is on D Tenkan-Sen. Short‑term forecast: we can expect support from Tenkan-Sen – Senkou Span B, and growth of the price.- 8:58 PM
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(EUR/USD, USD/JPY)Analysis for January 14th, 2016 EUR USD, “Euro vs. US Dollar”
At the H4 chart of EUR USD, bullish Three Methods continuation pattern indicates an ascending movement. Three Line Break chart and Heiken Ashi candlesticks confirm a bearish direction. There may be a bearish pullback from the resistance area.
The H1 chart of EUR USD shows a bullish tendency. Three Methods pattern indicated an ascending movement. Three Line Break chart and Heiken Ashi candlesticks confirm a bullish direction.
USD JPY, “US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen”
At the H4 chart of USD JPY, the sideways correction within the downtrend continues. The downside Window provides resistance. Hammers pattern, Three Line Break chart, and Heiken Ashi candlesticks confirm an ascending movement.
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